持續買進 作者／尼克．馬朱利 Nick Maggiulli 譯者／李芳齡

Some ideas to double confirm.  Not bad.

書閱:超正義的我竟然成為了域外天魔，拂書審墨著

虎頭蛇尾之感

書閱:墨道歸元，胡鱈著

爽

書閿:守望時空綻放時，胡鱈著

虎頭無尾

Book review: zombie: Mr. Nine you dug me out again by Evil Paint

Good starting.

little book of big dividend review draft

121 days 

: 除净T 前後60天，持有61天税reduction, so it may be better to invest 1 months b4 T to capture

red flag if yield 3pct above the peer. may not sustain 

if 2 to 3 times to index, also need to beware

Big safe dividend rules

1 payout lt 60pct

2 quatrix gt 75, ie the strength of firm gt 75pct of the market 

..growth of income, cash flow and sales

..quality, roe, roa and past return

..value, book value, pe and price to sale

.. debt ratio

.. income forecast

.. relative price to index

it is possible to buy directly from the firm, eg 941, 857, in hk

inflation is fierce, even 3pct, it will halve ur money in 25 years

dividend reinvestment can buy at downturn as well as good times

35 to 45 stocks evenly for diversification 

110 minus age equal ratio of stock. so age at 40, better 70 

......

advanced BSD

1 payout , wt 30

2 interest coverage, wt 10

3 cash flow to income, wt 5

4 yield wt 5

5 six mth RSI, lower may indicate problem, wt 10

6 increase in book value wt 10

7 long term income growth forecast wt 10

8 three years of cashflow growth wt 5

9 three year of dividend growth wt 10

10 three year of income growth wt 5

Peter Lynch review Draft

cash plus securities over time

vs

long term debt over time

net cash per share

out stock over time

key product's pct of sales

PE vs growth rate. threshold good if PE 1/2 times of growth, bad if PE 2 times of growth

(growth + yield )/PE，if bad lt 1, good if gt 3

debt to equity ratio

debt mix. bank <Corp debt

dividend

book value, question it

it contains depreciated goods, interest paid and expenses paid for long term proj

subsequent amortization will ruin the earning later

also contain hidden asset that at purchased value. eg land, metals, oil, etc

brand name, license, etc will amortize and become

cash inflow  10 pct is std , 50 pct is high

inventory ， check net decrease, compared with sales. net increase may indicate future no good

pension,  can be a liability.  check the gap

expansion is no use, but growth does

profit b4 taxes, better compare within the same industry,  choose the higher one for longvterm, but lower for short term

.....................

check list

1 pe

2 size of fund stockholder better less

3 size of internal stockholder better more

4 income stability

5 debt ratio lower

6 net cash value

for slow growth

1 high yield

2 better low payout

for stable growth

1 pe is crucial

2 is diversification ongoing.  better less

3 check long term growth rate

4 check performance in downturn

cycle

1 check inventory and new joiners

2 pe low at recovery.  if income new height  warning

3 the longer the downturn,  the better the long term. check the atmosphere

fast grow

1 check the share of income of the Trump card pdt

2 growth rate better 20 to 25, if more than 50 pct, usu not lasting

3 is the business model can be replicated in more than one city?

4 is the bus model just starting or cover most areas

5 is pe matching grow rate

6  grow rate accelerate or decelerate

7 is the pdt one off or repeated consumable?

8 is the stock covered by many analysts ? better less

turning stock

1 will debt issue fail the firm? chk cash, debt mix. also any new stocks issued

2 value if broke

3 is the losing part sold or stopped ?

4 is the business back?

5 is the cost reduced?

asset

1 how much real asset, any hidden

2 any debt, hidden debt

3 any potential takeover

..........

1 what is the reason of holding the stock. any advantage

2 need to check the life status of the firm. starting, expansion and mature (the story of the stock, what it is expanding to)

3 need to check the type of the firm.

fast grow, stable growth, slow growth,  asset 

cycle, turning stock,

4 big firm stable but less increase, small firm more

5 blessed is the small firm with replicable model proofed

6 beware of high growth over 50pct

7 avoid hot stock of hot industry

8 dt trust diversification of bus

9 too long holding horizon is no good

10 better avoid the first wave of growth

11 note your surrounding things and pdt familiar

12 boring stock is good

13 better with internal purchase

14 spend an hour for research a week

15 buy a stock with the time used to buy a fridge

16 act no rush and patient

..............

when to sell

.better based on set story and defined expectation.

.sell if no good surprise

. sell if story changes

.sell if trend based on profit changes

for slow stock, sell when not undervalued, lower yield

1 already rise a lot

2 invest wasted things, reduce cash

3 core business drop

for stable stock, sell when

1 price rise faster than growth

2 pe too high

3 new product no good sales but new new still 1 yr to launch

4 pe much higher than peer

5 no internal purchase for 1 year

6 major pdt will enter down cycle

7 reach the limit on cost saving

for cycle

1 cycle ends

2 cost rise, full capacity , high inventory

3 drop of price of commodity

4 new entrants

5 demand drop

6 no use on sales after cost cut

7 pe low?

for fast grow

1 at the end of 2nd stage

2 no new outlets

3 many analysts praised, many funds hold

4 pe new high

5 in 1 quarter, sale of branches drop 35pct

6 two management jump ship

7 just after a grand road show

8 pe over 30 but growth only 15

turn stock

1 when it turned positive

2 suddenrise of debt after drop trend

3 inventory increase as double rate of sale

4 too high pe, compared with expected turned income

5 the main counterparts is doing no good

asset

1 when buyer comes

2 the firm is going to waste the cash or asset by diversification

3 the value is gone

4 fund hold too much

....

rules

1 price can drop and drop

2 the bottom can last long long

3 price can rise and rise further

4 price is not relevant

5 price may not return

6 hard to bet bottom

7 dt set target to sell if need to sell

8 defense stock may not defend

9 good stock may need years to reflect

10 no need to cry for money not gained

11 no need to force buy next stock after selling or not buying the first one

12 rise or drop may not confirm your bet

書閱:華爾街操盤手給年輕人的15堂理財課 作者：闕又上

啓蒙好書，温故知新

書閱:漫畫左傳上下、漫畫論語上下，谷清平編

啟迪兒童，溫故知新，兩佳宜

Book Review: I'm really not the demon God 's lackey, by Ten thousand calamity fire (supplement)

A series of silly yet philosophical scenes.

Well said and quoted, the point of studying was to allow one to speak calmly with fools, whereas, exercising was to ensure fools would speak to oneself calmly.

Book Review: I'm really not the demon God's lackey by Ten thousand calamity fire

well organized. quite readable.